IATA Forecasts Robust Growth, Calls for Strategic Infrastructure Investment

The International Air Transport Association (IATA) has projected that global air passenger demand will more than double by 2050, reaching 20.8 trillion revenue passenger kilometres (RPKs) under a mid‑range scenario. The forecast, contained in IATA’s latest Long‑Term Demand Projections (LTDP), signals sustained growth driven by economic expansion, population increases, and deeper regional connectivity.

Presenting the findings, IATA Director General Willie Walsh described the outlook as a positive indicator for global economic and social development. “People want to travel and, under all our modelled scenarios, the demand to fly is expected to more than double by mid‑century,” Walsh said. “Aviation growth will catalyse opportunities, including jobs, around the world.”

The report outlines alternative trajectories: a high‑growth scenario at 3.3% compound annual growth rate (CAGR) yielding 21.9 trillion RPKs, and a lower‑growth scenario at 2.9% CAGR resulting in 19.5 trillion RPKs. The projections are based on an econometric model covering more than 41,000 country‑pair markets, with an industry‑level accuracy of 98%.

While celebrating the anticipated growth, Walsh emphasised that the LTDP should serve as a roadmap for governments and industry stakeholders. He called for supportive policy frameworks, including investments in efficient infrastructure, streamlined market access, regulatory harmonisation, and a decisive transition to cleaner energy sources. “The long‑term planning horizon requires action today,” Walsh added.

IATA noted that the COVID‑19 pandemic has introduced a lasting structural shift in demand, with RPKs not expected to fully revert to pre‑pandemic GDP‑aligned trends even by 2050. Meanwhile, the pace of global growth is moderating—from 6.1% annually between 1972 and 1998, to 4.5% between 1998 and 2024, and now a projected 3.1% through 2050, reflecting increasing market maturity rather than weakening appetite for air travel.