Petrol Prices Expected to Fall to N1,200 as Dangote Refinery Leads Fresh Round of Cuts

The pump price of petrol is set to drop to around N1,200 per litre in the coming days as the Dangote Petroleum Refinery slashes its ex-depot rate by N75, triggering a wave of price reductions across downstream facilities.

The refinery announced on Monday that its gantry price for premium motor spirit had been lowered from N1,250 to N1,175 per litre, while the coastal price per metric tonne fell from N1,595,790 to N1,495,215. The new rates took effect at midnight on 16 June 2026.

In a circular to fuel marketers, the company linked the adjustment to the de-escalation of tensions in the Middle East, which had driven energy prices sharply higher over the past three months.

“Following the de-escalation of tensions in the Middle East, which has impacted energy prices, we wish to inform you that we have reviewed our premium motor spirit gantry/coastal price,” the circular read.

It added that all outstanding unloaded gantry volumes would be repriced at the new rate and assured marketers of the refinery’s “unwavering commitment to reliable product supply and excellent service delivery.”

The price cut has already prompted other depot owners to lower their rates to around N1,180, according to industry data from Petroleumprice.ng. However, many filling stations were still selling petrol at about N1,280 per litre as of Tuesday, with marketers citing the need to clear old, higher-cost stock before reflecting the new price at pumps.

National Publicity Secretary of the Independent Petroleum Marketers Association of Nigeria (IPMAN), Chinedu Ukadike, said consumers could expect pump prices to settle between N1,200 and N1,250 in Lagos, while locations farther from supply hubs might see prices near N1,300.

“Once the Dangote refinery announces a new price, there is a serious pause in loading. It will enable people who just bought new products to see how they can clear the old stocks within a day or two. Then when the new stocks start coming into the market, the process of supply and price will set in. By tomorrow and Friday, people will start adjusting to the new price,” Ukadike said.

He appealed to Nigerians for patience, warning that an immediate, across-the-board price slash would inflict losses on retailers still holding expensive inventory.

The reduction comes against the backdrop of a sharp decline in global crude oil prices after the United States and Iran signed a ceasefire agreement and reopened the Strait of Hormuz. Brent crude, the international benchmark, dropped from $87 to $78 per barrel on Tuesday, having peaked above $120 during the three-month conflict.

Industry observers project that pump prices could fall as low as N900 per litre if the peace deal holds and crude costs continue to ease. However, a Dangote refinery official cautioned that the facility is still processing “expensive crude” already sitting in its tanks, suggesting a gradual pass-through of cheaper feedstock.

While welcoming the downward trend, the Petroleum Products Retail Outlet Owners Association of Nigeria (PETROAN) expressed concern that imported petroleum products currently appear cheaper than locally refined fuel. Spokesman Joseph Obele urged the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority to issue additional import licences to foster competition and accelerate price relief.

Nigerians on social media have also voiced disappointment, arguing that the N75 reduction does not fully reflect the steep decline in crude oil prices. Before the US-Iran tensions erupted on 28 February, petrol sold for around N830 per litre; it later climbed to roughly N1,300 as crude surged. Diesel and aviation fuel similarly recorded sharp increases during the period.

With global crude prices now trending lower and the Dangote refinery leading domestic price cuts, further reductions at the pump are expected in the coming weeks, barring any fresh disruptions to the supply chain.