Air Cargo Demand Dips 4.8% as Passenger Traffic Rises 2.1% in March – IATA

Global air cargo demand contracted by 4.8 per cent year-on-year in March 2026, even as passenger traffic recorded a 2.1 per cent increase over the same period, according to data released on Wednesday by the International Air Transport Association (IATA).

The divergent trends reflect the dual-speed nature of the aviation industry. Cargo operators continue to navigate geopolitical turbulence and elevated fuel costs, while passenger airlines benefit from sustained travel demand, despite growing economic pressures on consumers.

IATA’s figures show total cargo demand,  measured in cargo tonne-kilometres (CTKs) fell 4.8 per cent compared to March 2025, with cargo capacity declining 4.7 per cent. International cargo operations suffered a steeper 5.5 per cent contraction, highlighting the strain on global supply chains already unsettled by instability in the Middle East.

IATA Director General Willie Walsh attributed the sharp fall largely to severe disruptions at key Gulf aviation hubs and the post-Lunar New Year demand lull. “Air cargo demand fell 4.8 per cent in March compared to the previous year. This was mostly due to severe disruptions at major Gulf hubs because of the war in the Middle East. The timing of the usual post-Lunar New Year slowdown also added to the decline,” he said.

Despite the monthly drop, Walsh struck an optimistic tone on the broader outlook. “The underlying demand trends, at this point, appear strong, and the recent World Trade Organization and International Monetary Fund revisions to trade and GDP projections continue to see growth in 2026. Importantly, air cargo networks are providing the flexibility needed to support global supply chains as they adjust to geopolitical, tariff and operational strains.”

On the passenger side, total traffic measured in revenue passenger kilometres (RPKs), rose 2.1 per cent year-on-year in March, despite a 1.7 per cent reduction in total capacity. The global load factor improved to 83.6 per cent, signalling fuller aircraft even as international operations encountered headwinds. Domestic travel remained the strongest growth driver, rising 6.5 per cent, while international demand slipped 0.6 per cent.

The international decline was heavily skewed by a 60.8 per cent collapse in traffic carried by Middle Eastern airlines, which continue to grapple with airspace restrictions and regional instability. Walsh noted that without the Gulf crisis, the global passenger figure would have been significantly higher. “Demand for air travel continued to grow in March despite disruptions in the Middle East. The nearly 61 per cent decline in international traffic by carriers in the Middle East did, however, restrain global growth to 2.1 per cent. Outside of the Middle East, demand grew by eight per cent,” he explained.

Walsh also warned that rising jet fuel costs now pose a growing risk. “Everybody’s watching what’s happening with jet fuel, both supply and pricing. On the supply side, over the next months, we could see shortages in parts of the world with high dependence on supplies from the Gulf, especially Asia and Europe,” he cautioned.